华尔街日报 全国政协对楼市调控的建议:放松!

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Advice from CCPPC on Property Curbs: Relax!

全国政协对楼市调控的建议:放松!

2012年06月21日11:48

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)

Adding to a growing chorus, a group of Chinese policy advisers has urged Beijing to pull back on its two-year property-tightening campaign.

European Pressphoto Agency要求北京放松已实施两年的房地产调控政策的队伍越来越壮大,这其中还出现了一群中国政策顾问的身影,他们也开始敦促北京放松楼市调控。

According to a report in the state-run China Daily, the standing committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference called on the government to relax curbs in the once red-hot housing market, part of a broader proposal on policy adjustments to prevent the world's second-largest economy from weakening further.

中国国有英文报纸《中国日报》(China Daily)报道说,中国全国政协常委会呼吁中国政府放松对一度炽热的房地产市场的调控。这是该常委会一项内容更广泛的政策调整提案的一部分,提案就如何避免中国经济进一步下滑提出了建议。

Mainly made up of non-Communist Party members, the CPPCC is the official advisory body to China's legislature, the National People's Congress. Advisory is the operative word: the CCPPC makes suggestions, but doesn't make policy.'Restrictions on purchases should be relaxed for high-end residential properties in first-tier cities,' the newspaper cited the proposal as saying.

中国全国政协主要由非中共人士组成,是中国立法机关全国人民代表大会的官方咨询机构。这里面,咨询是个关键词。也就是说,政协是建言献策机构,而不是政策制定机构。

The article mentioned other elements of the proposal, such as lower taxes for small businesses and further interest-rate cuts, but offered nothing further on the property market.

《中国日报》援引政协提案中的话说,应放松对一线城市高端住宅的限购。

The proposal makes the debate around property curbs both more transparent and more confusing.

报道还提到了该提案的其它内容,如降低小企业税负和进一步降息等,但报道没有更多谈及有关房地产的内容。

Firstly, the call for an easing came just as the top leadership in Beijing has appeared in recent days at pains to quench hopes it will reverse property curbs following signs of a pick-up in investment and sales in some cities.Anxious to jump-start slowing growth, Beijing has rolled out a series of mini-easing measures in the property market in recent months, mainly making it easier for people perceived as genuine owner-occupiers, rather than speculators, to purchase their first homes. The top leadership has also become notably more tolerant of various forms of easing by cash-hungry local governments.

提案使得围绕中国楼市限购令的争论更加透明,同时也让外界更加困惑。

As a result, average housing prices in China fell at a gentler pace in May for a second consecutive month, following a rebound in transactions in major cities.

首先,就在提案呼吁北京方面放松调控之际,中国最高领导人近来似乎一直在想方设法浇灭外界在这方面的希望,即在中国某些城市出现楼市投资与销售回暖的迹象后,中央会取消限购令。

Such signs of life returning to the property market have led to growing speculation that Beijing is ready to loosen its grip further. The government has taken pains to dispel such notions, reiterating the tightening stance through the Housing Ministry and issuing stern warnings via the state-run Xinhua news agency.

北京方面急于要让增速不断放缓的中国经济重获增长动力,因此这几个月推出了一系列对楼市的微调措施,其主要目的是让那些买房自住的消费者能更轻松地购买首套住房,而不是给投机者提供方便。另外,对于缺乏资金的地方政府放松楼市调控的各种各样举措,中国最高领导层的态度也比以往更为宽容了。

Secondly, while the exact agenda behind the proposal remains unclear, it came from a political platform where the presence of interest groups is heavy and easily felt. For one, the CPPCC has a high component of wealthy members. It includes successful people from all walks of life, ranging from school teachers to athletes, movie stars and award-winning janitors.

5月份,中国大中城市平均房价连续第二个月回落速度放缓。此前,大城市的楼市交易量已有所回升。

Property tycoons are also among them.

房地产市场的这些回暖迹象让人不禁猜测,中国政府可能准备进一步放松楼市调控。中国政府为打消这些猜测可谓煞费苦心,一方面通过中国住房和城乡建设部一再重申将坚持紧缩立场,另一方面通过国有通讯社新华社发出严厉警告。

Thus, it's not surprising that the property easing measure cited in the China Daily article refers specifically to the high-end segment of the market.

其次,虽然还不清楚这份提案的具体动机,但它毕竟来自一个聚集了大量利益集团的政治机构。中国的全国政协委员中,富豪占很大比例。整体来看,政协委员由各行各业的成功人士组成,其中既有学校老师和运动员,也有电影明星和受表彰的锅炉工等等。

Thirdly, it remains to be seen whether the release of the proposal necessarily marks a widening or escalation of the ongoing policy debate. Some economists think so, having seen various groups join in the calls for eased property restrictions.

房地产大亨也是其中一份子。

'The debate will intensify as the economy slows,' said UBS economist Tao Wang.

如此说来,《中国日报》那篇报道引述的政协提案特别提到要放松对高端住宅的限购也就不足为奇了。

Standard Chartered's Stephen Green agreed: 'It's a move up in the transparency of the debate that has been on-going for a while,' he said, though he expects little movement before a party congress in the fall that will mark the start of a leadership shuffle, 'The political commitment to the buying restriction rules at the central level is high.'

再次,发布这份提案是否一定标志着当前政策辩论的扩大化或升级,这还是个未知数。在一些经济学家看来,答案是肯定的,因为之前已有各种群体加入到呼吁放宽楼市限制措施的队伍当中。

One curious thing that is worth noting is the fact that apart from the English-language China Daily, no other major Chinese state media appear to have noted the proposal.Was the proposal meant as a low-key gesture to draw more international attention, before making a further move to test domestic public opinion? It's not totally clear but it's likely.

瑞银(UBS)经济学家汪涛说,随着中国经济增速的放缓,这场争论将愈演愈烈。

This is because the average Chinese citizens are the ones who have suffered the most from the property bubble in the past decade and the public remains fiercely against any idea of ending the tightening campaign right now.The senior leadership appears to be well aware of the enormous political risks associated with this one reason Beijing has remained conspicuously silent.

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)也同意这种说法。他说,这会让已经开展了一段时间的讨论更加透明,不过他认为在标志着领导层换届的党代会今年秋季召开之前,政府不会有什么动作。他说,中央对限购令有着很强的政治承诺。