华尔街日报 经济前景黯淡 美联储加大力度促增长

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Fed Moves as Forecast Dims

经济前景黯淡 美联储加大力度促增长

2012年06月21日09:29

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)

Federal Reserve officials dialed up their efforts to boost the sluggish U.S. economy and said they were ready to do more if necessary to spur job growth.

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve,简称:美联储)官员加大了提振美国疲弱经济的力度。他们说,如果有必要,他们随时准备采取更多措施来促进就业增长。

They acted despite worries inside and outside the Fed that the central bank already has done all it can do to invigorate the disappointing economic recovery.

尽管美联储内外有人担心,该机构已经采取了一切可能的措施来刺激令人失望的经济复苏,但美联储还是采取了上述行动。

The Fed said Wednesday it would extend through the end of the year a program known as 'Operation Twist,' which aims to drive down long-term interest rates and reduce borrowing costs for businesses and households. Under the program, the Fed sells short-term securities and uses the proceeds to buy longer-term securities.

Getty Images美联储主席贝南克周三在华盛顿发表讲话。美联储周三说,将把所谓的“扭曲操作”(Operation Twist)期限延长到年底。“扭曲操作”意在压低长期利率,降低企业和家庭的借贷成本。根据这一计划,美联储卖出短期国债,利用所得来买进更长期国债。

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made clear in a news conference after the policy makers' meeting that he is prepared to take further action if he doesn't see progress on bringing down unemployment, which was 8.2% in May.

美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)在货币政策会议后的新闻发布会上明确表示,如果在降低失业率方面没有取得进展,他准备采取进一步的措施。5月份美国的失业率为8.2%。

'I wouldn't accept the proposition though that the Fed has no more ammunition,' Mr. Bernanke said. He added, 'if we don't see continued improvement in the labor market we'll be prepared to take additional steps.'

贝南克说,我不同意美联储已经没有更多“弹药”的说法。他还说,如果劳动力市场没有出现持续的好转,我们将准备采取更多措施。

Those and other comments made clear that Mr. Bernanke remains a policy activist as another summer economic slowdown threatens. His tone also marked a departure from the April news conference, when Fed officials appeared to be comfortable with the economy's progress and prepared to stand pat rather than undertake new measures to spark growth.

上述及其它声明明确显示出,在夏季经济可能再次放缓之际,贝南克仍是一个主张采取积极主动政策的官员。他的态度也不同于4月份新闻发布会时的态度。当时,美联储官员似乎对经济取得的进展感到满意,准备坚持现有措施而不是采取新措施来促进经济增长。

Three consecutive months of disappointing job gains and mounting worries about Europe's financial turmoil helped change their view.

就业岗位的增加连续三个月令人失望,人们对欧洲金融动荡的担忧不断加剧,这些因素帮助改变了美联储官员的看法。

'Growth in employment has slowed in recent months,' the Fed said in its policy statement, adding that 'household spending appears to be growing at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year' and that financial strains from overseas posed 'significant downside risks to the economic outlook.'

相关阅读专栏:美联储为第三轮定量宽松政策做铺垫美联储将扭曲操作延长到2012年底美联储下调2012年经济增速预期美联储低息政策只惠及富人?美联储在政策声明中说,就业增长近几个月一直在放缓。它还说,家庭支出的增速似乎较今年早些时候放缓,来自海外的金融压力给经济前景带来了很大的下行风险。

Investors were initially disappointed the Fed didn't take more aggressive action Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day down 12.94 points, or 0.1%, to 12824.39, after at one point dropping by nearly 100 points.

投资者的最初反应是对美联储周三没有采取更大力度的行动感到失望。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数周三跌12.94点,至12824.39点,跌幅0.1%,盘中一度跌了近100点。

The first-stage, $400 billion Operation Twist program had been scheduled to end this month. By extending it by six months, the Fed will be purchasing an additional $267 billion in Treasury bonds and notes with maturities ranging from six to 30 years, and selling an equivalent amount of securities with maturities of three years and less. This extension effectively expands Twist to $667 billion. By the time the program ends in December, the Fed will have almost no holdings maturing through January 2016.

第一阶段规模4,000亿美元的“扭曲操作”原计划于本月结束。通过将“扭曲操作”期限延长六个月,美联储将再买进2,670亿美元期限从六年到30年不等的中长期国债,并卖出期限为三年甚至更短的等量国债。“扭曲操作”期限的延长实际上将把该计划的规模扩大至6,670亿美元。到12月份“扭曲操作”结束时,美联储手里将几乎没有2016年1月前到期的国债。

Some analysts were skeptical about the impact of the Fed's latest move. 'It's doubtful that this will really help revitalize the U.S. economy, mainly because domestic demand remains weak and financial strains from Europe are likely to continue,' said Tanweer Akram, senior economist with ING Investment Management.

一些分析人士对美联储最新举措的影响表示质疑。ING Investment Management高级经济学家阿克拉姆(Tanweer Akram)说,此举是否真能够帮助提振美国经济,这一点还值得怀疑,主要是因为国内需求依然疲弱,来自欧洲的金融压力可能会继续。

The impact of the Fed's decision to extend Operation Twist will likely be 'pretty limited,' said Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics, 'but I don't think there's any sort of magic cure anyway.'

咨询公司Capital Economics首席美国经济学家艾什沃思(Paul Ashworth)说:美联储延长“扭曲操作”期限的决定带来的影响将可能非常有限,但不管怎样,我都认为不存在魔法般的解决方法。

Operation Twist is smaller than the Fed's earlier bond-buying programs and interest rates are already extremely low, he added.

他还说,“扭曲操作”比美联储此前的国债购买计划规模要小,此外利率也已经非常低。

'Any monetary action in the current economy is pretty limited because of the uncertainty, lack of confidence, credit constraints' and other headwinds, Mr. Ashworth said, but the Fed would be uncomfortable refraining from any action. 'Their view has always been 'better to try to do something' rather than throw your hands up and say 'there's nothing we can do.' '

艾什沃思说,由于存在不确定性缺乏信心信贷受到制约以及其它不利因素,在目前的经济环境下,采取任何货币行动都非常有限,但如果美联储不采取任何行动的话,它会感到不安。他说,Fed一直认为最好是努力做点什么,而不是两手一摊说“我们什么也做不了”。

Mr. Bernanke resisted criticism that extending Operation Twist would have little effect.

有人说延长“扭曲操作”期限不会产生任何效果。贝南克并没有受到这种质疑声音的影响。

'We did take a substantive step today,' he said. Continuing the program for six more months should push down long-term interest rates and ease financial conditions more, he said.

他说,我们今天迈出了意义重大的一步。将该计划再延期六个月将会进一步压低长期利率,使融资环境变得更加宽松。

The Fed already has pushed short-term interest rates to near zero, held them there since late 2008 and assured the public they are unlikely to move up through late 2014. It has also bought more than $2.5 trillion worth of Treasury and mortgage securities, in an effort to drive down borrowing costs, push up stock prices and shift investors into riskier holdings. The net effect, the Fed hopes, is to ease the burden of past debts for households and businesses and make them more willing to take risks such as hiring or investing today.

美联储已经将短期利率压低至零附近,并且从2008年末就一直将短期利率保持在这一水平。美联储还向公众保证,在2014年年底之前不太可能加息。美联储还购买了价值超过2.5万亿美元的国债和抵押贷款证券,目的是压低借贷成本并推高股价,让投资者把资金转移到风险更高的投资项目上来。美联储希望,这些措施最直接的效果是减轻家庭和企业过去的债务负担,让它们更愿意在当下承担招聘员工或是进行投资的风险。

Among the possible next steps listed by Mr. Bernanke: A new bond-buying program, known as 'quantitative easing,' in which the Fed buys even more long-term Treasury bonds or mortgage-backed securities and pumps money into the financial system in the process.

贝南克列举出的有可能采取的下一步措施包括实施新的债券购买计划,即所谓的“量化宽松”,按照这一计划,美联储将购买更多长期国债或是抵押贷款支持证券,通过这一过程为金融系统注资。

The Fed could also change its pledge on short-term interest rates and say it expects to hold rates near zero beyond 2014. Nearly a third of Fed officials polled at the policy meeting said they favored keeping rates low until at least 2015.

美联储还可以改变在短期利率上的承诺,同时表示预计在2014年之后会继续将利率保持在零水平附近。在政策会议上接受询问的美联储官员中,接近三分之一的人士表示,他们倾向于将低利率至少保持到2015年。

Mr. Bernanke said he also is watching an effort by the Bank of England to funnel credit to the private sector by offering cheap loans to banks only if they pass it on to households and businesses. 'This will be a type of thing that will be on the list of programs we look at,' Mr. Bernanke said.

贝南克说,他同样在关注英国央行(Bank of England)将信贷集中于私营部门的行动,英国央行采取的方法是,它可以为银行提供廉价贷款,但前提是这些银行必须把贷款提供给个人和企业。贝南克说,这是我们有计划要关注的措施之一。

Accompanying the Fed's announcement was a bleak update to the central bank's own economic forecast, lowering its expectations for economic growth and raising its forecast for the unemployment rate. Fed officials now project the economy will grow by between 1.9% and 2.4% this year, a half-percentage-point slower than they thought in April, and that it will grow by less than 3% next year. They also said they see the jobless rate at 7% or above by the end of 2014.

与美联储的决定一同被发布的,还有美联储对经济预测的调整。美联储调低了对经济增长的预期,同时提高了对失业率的预测。美联储官员目前的预期是,今年全球经济的增幅将在1.9%到2.4%之间,比4月份发布的预期低了0.5个百分点,美联储还预计明年的经济增幅将小于3%。美联储的官员表示,到2014年底失业率将达到7%,甚至更高。

Mr. Bernanke cited risks to the outlook, such as Europe's escalating debt woes. Other headwinds to growth he cited include business and consumer worries about the U.S. government's budget policies and a housing sector still damaged by the excesses of the 2000s borrowing boom.

贝南克提到了经济前景面临的风险,包括日益严重的欧洲债务危机。他所提到的其他不利于经济增长的因素包括,企业和消费者对美国政府预算政策的担忧,以及因本世纪头10年里过度借贷而仍在遭受冲击的房地产业。

Mr. Bernanke noted that inflation had subsided recently, primarily reflecting lower oil and gasoline prices. Fed officials Wednesday revised their estimates of inflation to between 1.2% and 1.7% this year, down from 1.9% to 2.0% in April.

贝南克指出,近期通货膨胀有所缓和,主要原因是原油和汽油价格走低。美联储官员周三将对今年通胀水平的预测修正到了1.2%到1.7%,相比之下,4月份的预测为1.9%到2.0%。

Some economists noted later that the Fed might be prodded into taking more aggressive action if a more significant drop in inflation sparked worries of deflation. The Fed's inflation forecasts receded a bit, but officials have been far less worried about deflation recently than they were immediately after the financial crisis and in 2010. Mr. Bernanke said Wednesday that the Fed'ssecond round of bond-buying 'ended what looked to be an incipient deflation problem.'

一些经济学家随后指出,如果通胀水平进一步大幅降低引发人们对通货紧缩的担忧,美联储可能会采取更加积极的行动。美联储略微调低了对通胀的预期,但是美联储官员目前对通货紧缩的担忧远远低于金融危机刚刚爆发之后或是2010年。贝南克周三说,美联储第二轮国债购买计划使得表面上看来处于萌芽期的通货紧缩问题得以遏制。

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker voted against his colleagues' action on Wednesday because he 'opposed continuation' of Operation Twist, according to the statement issued after their meeting. Mr. Lacker has dissented at all four FOMC meetings this year.

会议结束后发布的一份声明显示,里士满联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)行长拉克(Jeffrey Lacker)周三对其同僚的行动投了反对票,因为他反对继续实施“扭曲操作”。在今年全部的四次联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上,拉克都投了反对票。

However two new Fed governors Jeremy Stein and Jerome Powell, voted with Mr. Bernanke at their first policy meeting since they were confirmed by the Senate in May. The vote was 11-1.

不过,美联储两名新的理事──斯坦(Jeremy Stein)和鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在他们自5月份接受国会任命以来的首次政策会议上对贝南克投票表示了支持。最终的投票结果是11票赞成,1票反对。

KRISTINA PETERSON/JON HILSENRATH

KRISTINA PETERSON/JON HILSENRATH

(更新完成)