华尔街日报 美联储低息政策只惠及富人?

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Fed Wrestles With How Best to Bridge U.S. Credit Divide

美联储低息政策只惠及富人?

2012年06月21日11:11

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)

The U.S. recovery is hobbled by an economic divide that separates Americans not by income or wealth but by their access to credit.

美国经济的复苏正受到某种经济分化的阻碍,它不是民众之间在收入或财产上的分化,而是在能否获得信贷上的分化。

The housing bust left behind millions of people with credit records damaged by plunging home prices, lost jobs, past overspending or bad luck. Many are now walled off from the low interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve to spur the economy and remedy the aftereffects of the borrowing boom.

房地产市场泡沫破裂之后,数百万美国人因为房价暴跌失业以往花钱超支或是运气不佳而导致自己的信用记录受损。如今,他们中的很多人无法享受到美联储(Federal Reserve)为刺激经济和补救借贷热潮的不良后果而推行的低利率政策。

Millions with good credit, meanwhile, are taking advantage of the easy money, a windfall in many cases for people who don't especially need it.

相关报道经济前景黯淡 美联储加大力度促增长贝南克:延长扭曲操作具有重要意义“扭曲操作”可能适得其反 与此同时,数百万信用良好的美国人却趁机从低息贷款中获益。对于那些并不是特别需要贷款的人而言,它就是一笔意外之财,而这样的情况有很多。

Last year, nearly 90% of all new mortgages originated went to households with high credit scores; before the financial crisis, it was about half, according to Moody's Analytics and Equifax Inc., a credit monitoring service.

穆迪分析(Moody's Analytics)和信用监控服务机构Equifax的数据显示,去年美国新发放的抵押贷款有近90%流向了高信用家庭,这一数据在金融危机爆发前约为50%。

Shrunken access among credit have-nots is triggering more than personal plight. It has weakened the influence of the Fed-one of the best hopes for spurring stronger economic growth-and raised doubts within the central bank about whether it is doing much to reduce unemployment.

可获得贷款的低信用家庭数量的锐减不仅仅导致个人陷入困境,它还削弱了美联储(刺激经济加速增长的最大希望之一)的影响,并在美联储内部引发了关于其在降低失业率方面是否工作得力的质疑。

The debate is especially important now. Fed officials are weighing new steps at their policy meetings Tuesday and Wednesday, following a period of disappointing jobs growth and financial turbulence in Europe.

如今,这场争论变得尤其重要。继一段时期的就业增长数据令人失望以及欧洲金融市场动荡之后,美联储官员在周二和周三的货币政策会议上考虑了新举措,其中信贷分化问题也成为他们的考虑因素。在过去一年中,美联储官员对低利率政策未能惠及足够多的美国人来刺激经济加快增长感到失望,经济学教科书认为低利率政策是应该能够实现这一点的。

The credit divide factors into their thinking. Fed officials have been frustrated in the past year that low interest rate policies haven't reached enough Americans to spur stronger growth, the way economics textbooks say low rates should.

美联储希望通过降低利率(即信贷成本)来减轻人们以往所欠债务的负担,并鼓励家庭增加消费企业增加投资和扩大招聘。然而,美国经济却并未朝着他们所希望的方向发展。

By reducing interest rates-the cost of credit-the Fed encourages household spending, business investment and hiring, in addition to reducing the burden of past debts.

在从这样一次部分由信贷宽松引发的危机中幸存下来之后,银行依旧不愿意向哪怕只有一丁点财务问题的家庭发放贷款。房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)这两家获政府支持的抵押贷款融资公司在危机后均收紧了它们的放贷标准。各银行担忧这两家公司会驳回有问题的抵押贷款。

But the economy hasn't been working according to script.

如今,信用记录良好者可比信用记录不良者享受到更低的贷款利率。网站Loansifter.com的数据显示,依据美国Fair Isaac (简称“FICO”)的信用积分评分方法,积分达750分的高信用家庭的30年期住房抵押贷款利率在去年从4.44%降至3.53%,针对积分为650分的低信用家庭的利率则从4.84%降至4.04%。

After surviving a crisis caused partly by loose lending, banks remain reluctant to extend credit to households with even a hint of financial problems. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-backed mortgage finance firms, tightened their own standards after the crisis. Banks worry Fannie and Freddie will return any troubled mortgages.

美联储已表示计划将接近零水平的短期利率维持到2014年,它还购买了价值逾2.7万亿美元的国债和抵押贷款债券,以这种较为少见的方式来降低长期贷款利率。美联储也可通过提高债券购买数额或者将投资组合转向期限较长的债券或抵押贷款债务来降低长期利率。美联储主席本伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在6月初称,所有选择都提上了议程,但他并未明确表示是否会采取行动。

Interest rates are now falling more for people with good credit than those with poor credit. Rates on a 30-year mortgage for households with high credit scores of 750 using Fair Isaac, or FICO, ratings, have fallen from 4.44% to 3.53% in the past year, according to the website Loansifter.com. For households with low credit scores of 650, they have moved from 4.82% to 4.04%.

有些美联储官员对信贷分化的影响表达了担忧。亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长丹尼斯洛克哈特(Dennis Lockhart)在5月份接受采访时称,“我对更多政策举措会带来很大的变化感到有些怀疑,至少在当前的形势下我是这么认为。”

The central bank has said it planned to keep short-term interest rates near zero through 2014. It also has purchased more than $2.7 trillion-worth of government and mortgage bonds to reduce long-term interest rates in less conventional fashion.

在那之后洛克哈特的立场有所动摇,他在本月初的一次演讲中说道,如果经济前景恶化的话,他会考虑采取更多举措,但之后他又补充称他还不是“非常肯定”美联储是否应采取更多行动。

The Fed could decide to buy more bonds, or shift its portfolio toward longer-term bonds or mortgage debt to help bring down long-term interest rates. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said in early June that all options were on the table but was noncommittal about whether he would act.

在金融危机中财务丝毫无损的克里斯霍登(Chris Hordan)是美联储低利率政策的受益者之一。

Some officials worry about the effect of the credit divide. 'I've taken a position of some skepticism, at least under the current conditions, that more policy action would make that much of a difference,' Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said in a May interview.

霍登位于加州赫莫萨海滩(Hermosa Beach)的房子有一笔417,000美元的抵押贷款,凭借其丰厚的收入和完好的信用记录,他在17个月内为这笔贷款进行了三次再融资,从而使每个月的月供减少了390美元。根据经济学教科书的说法,低息贷款可以帮助节省利息支出,若数百万的家庭将省下的利息大部分用于商品和服务消费的话,那么美国的经济应该会以更快的速度复苏。

Mr. Lockhart has since wavered. He said in a speech earlier this month that he would consider more action if the outlook worsened, then later added he wasn't yet 'quite convinced' that the Fed should do more.

事实是,霍登并不需要这笔钱来买东西。他说,他的电子测试仪器生意每年的营收达100万美元左右,他可以用存款轻松地还清抵押贷款。那么他为什么还要费神去贷款呢?原因是贷款的成本很低,他的抵押贷款利率是3.875%,而且支付抵押贷款利息还有税收优惠,所以他并没有撤销自己的抵押贷款,而是把这笔钱用来投资。

Chris Hordan, who emerged from the financial crisis financially unscathed, is one of the beneficiaries of Fed policies.

他说,“如果你不需要这笔钱,你也可以整天拿着这笔钱。谢谢你,本伯南克。”

With a good income and pristine credit, he has refinanced the $417,000 mortgage on his home in Hermosa Beach, Calif. three times in 17 months, shaving his monthly payments by $390. Multiply the fruit of cheap credit across millions of households-with healthy portions of interest savings spent on goods and services-and the U.S. should be recovering more quickly, according to textbook economics.

因此,问题之一是,与收入较低的家庭相比,财务稳健的家庭将省下的利息支出用于消费的可能性更小。根据标准的经济学理论和研究,较为富裕的家庭更有可能把意外之财存起来或者把它用于投资,因为他们已经能够完全满足自己的消费需求。

But Mr. Hordan doesn't need the money to buy things. His electronic test equipment business has annual revenues of roughly $1 million and he could easily pay off his mortgage with savings, he said. But why bother? Borrowed money is cheap-his mortgage rate is 3.875%-and there are tax benefits for paying mortgage interest. Instead of retiring his mortgage, he is investing the money.

以霍登为例,他把省下的抵押贷款利息支出用在了投资黄金新兴市场美国股市和欧洲的银行上。

'If you don't need the money, you can get it all day long,' he said. 'Thank you, Ben Bernanke.'

在以往的经济衰退期中,利率降低往往会引发大规模的抵押贷款再融资和新增借款热潮,由此刺激的消费支出为经济复苏提供了动力。

One problem is that financially secure households are less likely than lower-income households to spend their interest rate savings. Wealthier households are more likely to save or invest a windfall because they can already consume as much as they want, according to standard economic theory and research.

在这一次,许多收入较低或者信用记录有污点的有意愿的借款人却发现难以为他们的抵押贷款再融资或者获得新贷款,即使能的话成本也比以往更高,有时他们甚至根本无法再融资或获得新贷款。

Mr. Hordan, for example, is spending his mortgage savings on such investments as gold, emerging markets, U.S. stocks and European banks.

古丽亚娜伯纳勒斯(Giuliana Bernales)今年33岁,是佛罗里达州迈阿密的一名银行分析师。她在两年前买了一套共管公寓,但在买完房子的八个月后失业,因此延误了几期月供的偿还。

In previous downturns, the lowered interest rates triggered broad waves of mortgage refinancing and new borrowing. The spending that resulted helped power the recoveries.

伯纳勒斯说,她新工作的年薪在45,000美元左右。不过,她不能为其有联邦住房管理局(Federal Housing Administration)担保的152,000美元抵押贷款再融资,因为她的信用积分已经下降,而且其房子也已经贬值。如果她能把其当前5.5%的抵押贷款利率降到4%或更低水平,那么她每个月将能节省200美元的利息支出。

This time around, many would-be borrowers with lower incomes or blemished credit histories are finding it difficult and more costly, or sometimes impossible, to refinance their mortgages or get new loans.

她说,“那对我来说会非常有帮助。他们告诉我至少需要连续一年准时还款(才能享受再融资)。”最近她又提交了一份新申请。

Giuliana Bernales, a 33-year-old bank analyst in Miami, Fl., bought her Miami condominium two years ago. She lost her job eight months later and made late mortgage payments.

美国的信贷分化并不总是存在于富人和穷人之间。52岁的比尔霍尔(Bill Hall)是西雅图的一名消防员,他的年收入达到了六位数。就在2007年房地产泡沫即将破灭之时,他在华盛顿州西雅图的郊区克利埃勒姆(Cle Elum)买了一栋房子。这栋房子花了他320,000美元,而且是全额贷款,如今房子的价值还不到200,000美元。他说,即便有可能的话,再融资也不划算,因为即使那样他的欠款还是比房子的价值要高得多。

Ms. Bernales said her new job pays roughly $45,000 per year. But she can't refinance her $152,000 mortgage, which is backed by the Federal Housing Administration, because her credit score has fallen, along with her home's value. If she could lower her 5.5% mortgage rate to the current 4% or less, she would save $200 a month.

霍尔在2009年遭遇了第二重打击,他被诊断患了膀胱癌,因此停工了几个月时间。目前他的病情已有缓解,但是他的财务状况依旧没有恢复。他说,在一辈子都是按时还款之后,最终他在去年11月停止还贷,但是他依旧住在那栋房子中。他的信用积分从近800分降至600多分,从稳健水平降为勉强维持信用的水平。

'For me, that would be a lot of help,' she said. 'They told me I need a year at least of on-time payments.' She recently submitted a new application.

10年前,霍尔用房子作抵押购买了汽车船和摩托车。他说,“在整个成年生活中,我一直受到鼓励要成为一名好消费者。”现在他计划在补救信用记录的同时过上没有债务的生活。

The American credit divide doesn't always distinguish between rich and poor. Bill Hall, a 52-year-old Seattle firefighter, has a six-figure income. He bought his home in Cle Elum, Wash., a Seattle suburb, just as the property boom was about to fizzle in 2007. He paid $320,000, borrowing all of it. The home would now fetch less than $200,000. He said refinancing, even if possible, wouldn't be worthwhile because he would still owe far more than his house was worth.

从全美范围来看,信贷分化缩小的迹象已经出现。大范围的再融资活动增长加快,房地产市场也开始出现起色。在汽车贷款市场,贷款已开始更自由地流向信用积分低的家庭。

Mr. Hall suffered a second setback in 2009: a bladder cancer diagnosis that kept him out of work for months. The cancer is in remission but his financial status remains impaired. After a lifetime of timely payments, he said, he stopped paying his mortgage last November, though he remains living at the house. His credit score fell from near 800 into the 600s, from solid to sketchy.

在2011年,银行和信贷公司向信用积分低于700分的家庭发放了1690亿美元汽车贷款。根据Equifax的数据,该数额尽管仍比金融危机爆发前低32%,但较2010年上升了26%;同期发放给信用积分高于700分的家庭的汽车贷款为2070亿美元,较去年上升了8%,比金融危机前高出12%。

A decade ago, he borrowed against his home to buy cars, boats, motorcycles. 'My whole adult life,' he said, 'I was encouraged to be a good consumer.' Now, he plans to live without debt while he repairs his credit score.

许多美联储官员称,他们的降息举动就算不尽如人意的话,也是适当之举。美联储理事伊丽莎白杜克(Elizabeth Duke)在上月接受采访时称,美联储的政策降低了企业和个人贷款的利率,给经济发展带来了范围广泛的积极影响。

Nationally, there are signs the credit gap is narrowing. Broad refinancing activity has picked up and housing markets have started to improve. Credit has started flowing more freely to low-credit-score households in the auto-lending market.

美联储的政策还推动了股价上涨,进一步刺激了经济的增长。《华尔街日报》调查了自2008年11月美联储首次实施国债购买计划以来,其新举措公布或出现即将公布迹象时的18次股市表现。在相关消息出现的那几天时间,标准普尔500指数(S 500)平均上涨了0.7%,而同期其他日子的平均涨幅要低得多,仅为0.05%。此处也体现出低息贷款的好处分配不均──美国很大一部分股票都掌握在富裕家庭手中。

In 2011, banks and finance companies issued $169 billion in car loans to households with credit scores below 700. That was up 26% from 2010, though still down 32% from before the financial crisis, according to Equifax. Car loans to households with credit scores above 700 were $207 billion in 2011, up 8% from a year earlier and up 12% from before the bust.

尽管如此,美联储低利率政策带来的好处还是通过其他途径得到广泛传播。例如,美元兑一篮子货币的汇率自2007年以来已下跌4%,这有利于促进美国的对外出口,进而帮助在美国国内创造制造业蓝领工作岗位。

Many Fed officials say their efforts to reduce interest rates have been appropriate if imperfect. Elizabeth Duke, a Fed governor, said in an interview last month that central bank policies lowered rates for corporate borrowing and consumer loans, with broadly positive effects on the economy.

然而,信贷是美联储的货币政策对经济发挥作用的最重要和最直接的途径。美联储面临的问题是,其低息贷款在金融体系中的流通管道发生了阻塞。

Fed policies have also helped to push stock prices higher, which spurs growth. The Journal examined 18 instances when new Fed measures were either announced or foreshadowed since November 2008, the time of the central banks' first bond-buying program.

美联储在4月份进行的一项调查显示,与2006年相比,83%的银行更不可能批准信用积分仅为620分和首付为10%的家庭的新贷款申请,即使该笔贷款有房利美或房地美担保也是如此。

The S 500 rose by 0.7% on average during days of Fed news. The average increase in the index on all other days was much smaller, 0.05%, over the same period. Here, too, the spoils of easy money were unevenly divided: Wealthy households hold a large proportion of the nation's stocks.

芝加哥联邦储备银行行长查尔斯埃文斯(Charles Evans)在上月接受采访时指出,“这对货币政策的潜在作用造成了很大限制,通常来说(宽松货币政策实施后)会出现规模非常大的再融资热潮,人们能够把他们的高息抵押贷款换成低息贷款,他们的月供也会降低。这会提高所有有条件这么做的人的购买能力,会扩大总需求。这才是它应该发挥的作用。”

The benefits of Fed policies are being spread broadly in other ways, however. The cheaper dollar, which since 2007 has dropped 4% against a broad basket of other currencies, is making exports a bit easier to sell abroad and, by extension, helping create blue-collar manufacturing jobs in the U.S.

美联储官员在今年年初发布了一份文件,提出了一些国会和监管机构可以帮助未获得再融资和低息贷款的家庭获得贷款的方式,从而引发了一场与共和党议员的争执。美联储在文件中提到监管机构应允许房利美和房地美免除费用并吸收更多抵押贷款。一些共和党议员则指责伯南克干涉立法事务站在了白宫的一边。

But credit is the most important and most direct channel through which Fed policies affect the economy. The problem for the Fed is that the pipes in the financial system through which its easy money travels are clogged.

研究显示美联储的举措产生的效果不甚均衡。波士顿联邦储备银行研究员保罗威伦(Paul Willen)与纽约联邦储备银行经济学家安德里亚斯弗斯特(Andreas Fuster)在2010年展开的一项研究发现,美联储在2008年和2009年实施的抵押贷款购买计划引发了一股再融资热潮,但大多数的再融资都流向了信用记录优异的家庭。

An April Fed survey found that 83% of banks were less likely to approve a new mortgage for a household with a low credit score of 620 and a 10% home down payment than they were in 2006, even a loan guaranteed by Fannie or Freddie.

该研究显示,在美联储启动了一项1.25万亿美元的抵押贷款债券购买计划之后,信用积分在760分以上的家庭获得的再融资增加了六倍,而信用积分低于700分的家庭所获得的再融资只增加了一倍。信用积分达到近800分被认为是优秀水平,而信用积分在600多分意味着借贷人出现过延迟还款的情况或者是以往曾出现财务问题。

'This is a big limitation on the potential effects of monetary policy,' Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said in an interview last month. 'Normally we'd have a very large refinance boom. People would be able to trade in their high-interest-rate mortgage for lower ones and their mortgage payment would go down. That would put more spending power in the hands of anybody in a position to do that. That would increase aggregate demand. That is the way it is supposed to work.'

威伦说,“你希望那些信用存在问题的人获得贷款,但他们往往正是没有获得贷款的人,货币政策对绝大多数人都没有产生效果。”

Fed officials triggered a spat with Republican lawmakers earlier this year when they released a paper suggesting ways Congress and regulators could spur refinancing and ease credit to households not getting it. The Fed, for instance, urged regulators to allow Fannie and Freddie to waive fees and take on more mortgages. Some Republicans accused Mr. Bernanke of meddling in legislative affairs and taking the side of the White House.

美联储自2009年之后又启动了几项抵押贷款债券购买计划,其中出现了同样的问题。抵押贷款数据研究公司Lender Processing Services的一项分析显示,4月份信用积分在760分或以上的借款人提前偿还了逾22%的贷款,主要都是通过再融资完成,而信用积分低于620分的借款人提前偿还的数额不到贷款额的9%。

Research shows how Fed efforts have yielded uneven results. A 2010 study by Paul Willen, a researcher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and Andreas Fuster, a New York Fed economist, found the Fed's mortgage purchase program in 2008 and 2009 led to a tidal wave of refinancing, but mostly by households with superior credit records.

华尔街投行杰富瑞(Jefferies Inc.)的债券策略师戴维泽沃斯(David Zervos)指出,“尽管美联储推出了史上规模最大的货币政策刺激举措,却未能帮助大部分的人将借贷成本降低。”他称美联储的行动是“针对富人的货币政策”。

Households with credit scores above 760 saw a sevenfold increase in refinancing after the Fed launched a $1.25 trillion mortgage-purchase program, while refinancing doubled among households with scores below 700, according to the study. A credit score near 800 is considered excellent, while scores in the 600s reflect some late payments or other past financial trouble.

美联储官员称,国会赋予他们的长期使命是将失业和通胀降到最低程度,而不是巨细不漏地管理经济事务中财富收入或信贷的分配。杜克说,“那是期望美联储去做远远超出其能力范围的事情。”

'You want the money to go to people for whom credit is an issue, and those are exactly the people to whom credit isn't going,' Mr. Willen said. 'Monetary policy is having no effect on the vast majority of people.'

埃文斯说,美联储的利率杠杆是(刺激经济)的一把钝器。

Since 2009, the Fed has launched several other mortgage bond-buying program and a similar bottleneck emerged. An analysis by Lender Processing Services Inc., a mortgage data research firm, shows that in April borrowers with credit scores of 760 or greater had paid more than 22% of their mortgages early, largely through refinancing, while borrowers with scores below 620 had prepaid less than 9% of their mortgages.

JON HILSENRATH

'Even though we have the greatest monetary policy stimulus in the history of the Fed, we really have not managed to lower the funding costs for a large swath of people,' said David Zervos, a bond strategist with Jefferies Inc., a Wall Street investment bank. He called Fed efforts 'monetary policy for rich people.'

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Fed officials said they have a long-standing congressional mandate to minimize unemployment and inflation, not to micromanage the distribution of wealth, income or credit in the economy. 'That is expecting the Fed to do way more than it can possibly do,' said Ms. Duke.

The Fed's interest rate lever, Mr. Evans said, is a blunt instrument.

JON HILSENRATH