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In Gold Market, China Sparkles as India Appetite Slows
中国黄金需求大增弥补印度需求疲弱
2012年06月21日11:33
(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)
Chinese demand for gold isn't letting up following a strong first quarter that saw demand reach record levels from Asia's biggest economy, offsetting weakening appetite in India.
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'It does seem that China is picking up the slack in the system from a weaker India,' said Ross Norman, chief executive of London-based bullion broker Sharps Pixley.
亚洲最大经济体中国对黄金的需求在今年第一季度创下历史纪录后,目前并没有回落的迹象。中国对黄金的这种强劲需求抵消了印度的需求不振。
Chinese imports of the yellow metal from Hong Kong were 65% higher in April than the month before, the third monthly increase in a row according to data compiled by Commerzbank, citing the Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong.
伦敦贵金属经纪商Sharps Pixley的首席执行长诺曼(Ross Norman)说,目前中国似乎的确是在弥补印度黄金需求减弱对市场的影响。
A research note by the German bank says the Hong Kong statistics are important because they offer a clue into China buying since the country doesn't release overall gold import figures. By the end of April, China had this year already imported more than half of last year's total gold import volume, says Commerzbank.
德国商业银行(Commerzbank)援引香港政府统计处(Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong)的数据说,4月份中国内地从香港进口的黄金总量较上月增加了65%,连续第三个月环比增长。
Chinese demand remains strong given that gold is bought by an increasingly affluent middle class as an investment and because the yuan remains robust against the U.S. dollar, which the metal is denominated in, making it cheaper for Chinese buyers.
德国商业银行的一份研究报告说,中国一般不公布其黄金进口总量,因此香港的这些统计数据十分重要,为外界了解中国的黄金采购提供了线索。德国商业银行说,截至4月底,中国今年的黄金进口量已经超过了去年黄金总进口量的一半。
'Inflation [in China] is high and there is a low chance to invest in property and little desire to participate in the stock market. But disposable income is rising and people want to protect their wealth,' said Helen Lau, a senior metals and mining analyst at securities firm UOB Kay Hian.
中国的黄金需求依然强劲,原因是中国日渐富裕的中产阶级把黄金当作投资品来买,这是由于人民币兑美元依然坚挺,因此以美元计价的黄金对中国买家来说就显得更为便宜。
In contrast, demand in India, which was traditionally the world's biggest buyer of gold, is weakening. Indian demand has suffered from the government's introduction of an unpopular tax on gold that was subsequently removed and a persistent weakness in the rupee as the economy slows.
证券公司大华继显(UOB Kay Hian)的金属和矿业高级分析师Helen Lau说,中国内地的通胀水平目前处于高位,人们投资房地产的机会不多,而投资股市的欲望则几乎没有,但他们的可支配收入却不断提高,都希望保护自己的财产不缩水。
The poor performance of the rupee means that gold appears extremely expensive to an Indian consumer. It is trading near all-time highs in India, at around 30,000 rupees ($536) per 10 grams.
相比之下,曾一度是全球最大黄金买家的印度如今对黄金的需求却不断减弱。印度的黄金需求之所以受到影响,一方面是因为印度政府推出了一项不得人心的黄金税(后来被取消),另一方面则是因为随着印度经济增速放缓,卢比持续疲软。
Morgan Stanley's most recent India Gold Survey shows that demand for gold in the country is divided equally among individual consumption, investment and spending on events like weddings and religious festivals.
卢比表现不力意味着黄金对印度消费者来说现在极为昂贵。在印度,金价目前接近历史高位,每10克黄金的价格在3万卢比(合536美元)左右。
There's also a continued interest in gold as an investment because from a rupee perspective, gold has been the best-performing asset over the last 10 years.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最新发布的《印度黄金调查》(India Gold Survey)显示,印度的个人消费投资以及婚礼和宗教节日等庆典事件对黄金的需求大体相当。
Expected gains in gold and low volatility are the main drivers of Indian investment demand, more so than inflation, so the high price is not necessarily a deterrent.
此外,印度人对黄金投资仍饶有兴趣,因为从卢比汇率这个角度看,黄金是过去10年表现最好的资产。
'If the gold value starts to fall off in rupee terms, that could affect the return perception, which could have an effect on demand,' said Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley's India head of research.
相较通胀,黄金的预期收益和低波动性是推动印度人黄金投资需求的两大因素,因此高价位不一定会让买家却步。
Indians will continue paying more money for less gold, Morgan Stanley predicts: The bank forecasts demand in volume will fall by 4% in 2012, while rising by 4% in value.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)印度研究部门主管德赛(Ridham Desai)说,如果以卢比计价的黄金价格开始下跌,则可能影响人们对黄金投资回报的看法,这可能会对需求造成影响。
Daniel Inman
由于印度人将继续以更多的卢比换来更少的黄金,因此摩根士丹利预计,2012年印度对黄金的需求量将减少4%,而折合成卢比的黄金购买额将增加4%。
Daniel Inman