华尔街日报 俄罗斯未雨绸缪准备应对经济风暴

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Russia Prepares for An Economic Storm

俄罗斯未雨绸缪准备应对经济风暴

2012年06月19日10:42

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)

With prices for oil, its main export, sliding, Russia is already gearing up for economic troubles, laying plans for spending cuts and a weaker ruble if the global situation worsens further, according to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov.

随着主要出口商品石油价格下行,俄罗斯已经在为即将到来的经济困难做准备。据第一副总理舒瓦洛夫(Igor Shuvalov)说,俄罗斯正在制定削减支出和贬值货币的计划,以应对全球经济形势进一步恶化。

'The dangers are clear--falling demand for our products and the prices on them--just what we saw in 2008. For the moment, it doesn't look that bad, but we need to be ready for the most dramatic possible shocks,' he said in an interview.

舒瓦洛夫说,危险清楚地摆在那里:我们的产品需求下降价格下跌,就跟2008年的情况一样;暂时来看没有那么糟糕,但我们需要为最剧烈的冲击做好准备。

Russia spent tens of billions defending the ruble in 2008 and saw its once-hot economy drop into a steep recession in 2009. Growth this year is expected to be around 4%.

相关报道俄罗斯即将入世 美国商界担心错失良机俄罗斯央行行长:资本外逃“问题严重”俄罗斯是否在迈向“后普京”时代?普京回归 增加改革阻力2008年,俄罗斯花费了数百亿卢布以维持本国货币的汇率;2009年,一度热火朝天的俄罗斯经济陷入深度衰退。据预计,今年的经济增长在4%左右。

Mr. Shuvalov said Russia is better prepared than in 2008, with less foreign-currency debt and a 'practically free-floating' ruble. 'At $90, we feel more or less OK,' he said, referring to the price of crude oil in Europe, now about $96 a barrel.

舒瓦洛夫表示,相比2008年俄罗斯有了更充分的准备,不仅外币债务更少,而且卢布的汇率已经相当于实现了自由浮动。他说,在欧洲原油价格处于90美元的情况下,我们或多或少地还能感觉良好。目前欧洲原油价格为每桶96美元。

He also said the government remains committed to promised steps to improve the investment climate and open up the economy, including an aggressive plan to cut state ownership in half over the next five to six years.

他还表示俄罗斯政府仍然致力于推出为改善投资环境开放经济而承诺的措施,其中包括一个在未来五到六年将国有股权减半的宏大计划。

In the first major official Russian comment on the recent explosion in tension between BP PLC (BP.LN, BP) and its Russian partners, Mr. Shuvalov said the government doesn't want a state company to buy BP's stake in the TNK-BP Ltd. joint venture but would welcome a takeover by BP's existing local partners, a group of Soviet-born billionaires known as AAR.

舒瓦洛夫说,政府不想让一家国有企业收购英国石油(BP PLC)在合资公司TNK-BP Ltd.中的股权,但将欢迎英国石油目前的俄罗斯伙伴──一个名叫“AAR”苏联时代出生的亿万富豪团体──收购这家合资公司。这是俄罗斯官方首次对英国石油与其俄罗斯伙伴最近爆发的矛盾发表重要言论。

Relations between the two sides have grown so tense that BP on June 1 said it is considering selling its 50% stake in TNK-BP, Russia's third-largest oil producer. AAR has expressed interest, but so has a Russian state company, according to people close to the process, raising concern about a tightening of Kremlin control over the oil industry in the world's largest energy producer.

由于双方矛盾升级,英国石油在6月1日表示正在考虑出售它在俄罗斯第三大石油生产商TNK-BP中所持的50%股份。AAR曾表示有兴趣接手,但据知情人士说,俄罗斯一家国有企业也表达了兴趣,使人担心克里姆林宫对可能会对俄罗斯这一世界最大能源生产国的石油行业加强控制。

'If the conflict with BP won't go away, then it's better than AAR buy BP out,' Mr. Shuvalov said.

舒瓦洛夫说,如果与英国石油的冲突解决不了,那么AAR接盘可能更好。

While BP has denounced AAR's approach, Mr. Shuvalov praised the often-tough tactics of its dominant shareholder, Mikhail Fridman's Alfa Group. 'They're difficult partners, but they are very responsible and have shown that they can achieve a lot,' said Mr. Shuvalov.

虽然英国石油曾对AAR的方法予以谴责,但舒瓦洛夫对AAR主要股东富翁弗里德曼(Mikhail Fridman)的阿尔法集团(Alfa Group)常常采用的强硬手段予以称赞。舒瓦洛夫说,他们是很难对付的合作伙伴,但他们非常负责,并且已经证明他们能做成很多事情。

Mr. Shuvalov said the government would also be happy to see another foreign company join TNK-BP. He left the door open to participation for a state company as part of a broader alliance in which another foreign major might take a stake in OAO Rosneft, the state oil company.

舒瓦洛夫表示政府也乐见另外一家外资公司入股TNK-BP。他没有排除国有企业入股的可能性。国有企业的入股将是一次更大联姻的一部分,在这次联姻中,可能会有另一家重要外资公司取得俄罗斯国有石油公司OAO Rosneft的一部分股权。

The government also would be eager to find a way to keep BP in the Russian oil sector even if it sold its TNK-BP stake, he said.

他说,即使英国石油出售其TNK-BP股份,俄罗斯政府也非常希望它继续留在俄罗斯石油行业。

No discussions are under way with the government on any of these issues at the moment, he said. He said he wasn't aware that a state company had expressed interest in buying BP's stake, adding that the government would have to approve such a deal for it to go through.

他说,目前英国石油与俄罗斯政府没有就这些问题中的任何一个展开谈判。他表示不知道已经有一家国有企业表达了收购英国石油所持股份的兴趣,并表示政府不得不批准这样一笔交易。

Mr. Shuvalov confirmed that Russia was considering a request for financial assistance from a European country but said that a final decision would involve 'political considerations' and would be taken by Russia's top leadership. Officials in Cyprus, struggling with banking problems, have said they have appealed to Moscow for a second bailout loan. The greater risk for Russia is a sharp slowdown in European growth because of its potential impact on world prices for Russia's commodity exports, rather than the fate of the euro, he said.

舒瓦洛夫证实,俄罗斯正在考虑一个欧洲国家向俄提出的金融援助请求。但他说,最后的决定将涉及到“政治上的考虑”,将由俄罗斯最高领导层做出。忙于应对银行业问题的塞浦路斯官员表示,他们已经请求莫斯科提供第二笔救助贷款。舒瓦洛夫说,对俄罗斯而言,更大的风险是欧洲经济增长大幅放缓,而不是欧元的命运,因为欧洲经济增长放缓可能给俄罗斯所出口大宗商品的全球价格带来冲击。

In Mexico for the meeting of the Group of 20 leading economies, meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin in a local newspaper touted Russia's low debt and relatively strong growth but also pledged to speed up reforms and called on other countries to 'end the hypocrisy' and reach agreement limiting protective tariffs on trade.

与此同时,在墨西哥参加20国集团峰会的俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)在当地一份报纸上宣传了俄罗斯的低负债水平和相对强劲的经济增长,但他也承诺将加快改革步伐,并呼吁其他国家结束伪善的态度,就限制在贸易方面实行保护性关税达成协议。

Many investors have expressed concern that with Mr. Putin's return to the presidency in May, hopes of long-awaited economic reforms are fading. Mr. Shuvalov said the government remains committed to steps to improve the investment climate, noting that much of the huge capital outflow seen in recent months has been from companies with too few suitable projects to invest in.

很多投资者担心,随着普京今年5月重掌总统大权,俄罗斯越来越无望实施人们期待已久的经济改革。舒瓦洛夫说,政府仍致力于采取措施改善投资环境。他指出,近几个月的巨额资本流出大部分来自于在俄罗斯没有什么合适投资项目的企业。

Mr. Shuvalov hinted at differences within the government over the pace of a planned selloff of state assets, noting that the strategic energy sector will get special treatment. But he sought to allay fears that Rosneftegaz, a state holding company where former Kremlin energy czar Igor Sechin is expected to join the board soon, would be used to bring more assets under state control. 'The prime minister and I and our colleagues agree that there's no reason for the state to use it as a means to grab up assets,' he said.

舒瓦洛夫暗示,对于拟议中的国有资产出售一事,政府内部在具体的实施速度方面存在分歧。他指出,战略性的能源行业将受到特别对待。不过,他力求缓解人们对国有控股公司Rosneftegaz可能被用来将更多资产置于政府控制之下的担忧。预计曾在克里姆林宫掌管能源行业大权的谢钦(Igor Sechin)不久后将加入该公司董事会。舒瓦洛夫说,总理和我以及我们的同事一致认为,政府没有理由用此作为攫取资产的一种手段。

Political opposition and budget problems could slow some painful overhauls in areas like health, pensions and education, he said.

他说,政治上遇到的反对和预算问题可能使医疗养老金和教育等领域一些艰巨的改革放缓步伐。

But investors should welcome the new tension in Russia's political system, as evidenced by the mass street demonstrations in the months since the contested December parliamentary elections, Mr. Shuvalov said.

但舒瓦洛夫说,投资者应该欢迎俄罗斯政治体系中新出现的紧张氛围,这种紧张氛围可以从去年12月存在争议的议会选举结果出来后的几个月里发生的群众街头示威活动中看出来。

'If gradually, with the authorities moving back and forth between tightening up and loosening, people get used to this 'new normal' of protests, that means the political system is developing,' he said.

他说,如果在政府交替采取收紧和放宽措施的情况下,人们逐渐习惯了这种新的常态化抗议活动,则意味着政治体系在进步。

But even if the Kremlin gradually opens up the political system at home, tensions with the West over foreign policy--such as Moscow's support for the regime in Syria--are likely to continue because of broad domestic support for Russia's independent foreign policy, he said.

不过他也说,就算克里姆林宫逐渐放开国内的政治制度,由于国内民众普遍支持俄罗斯采取独立的外交政策,俄罗斯与西方在外交政策方面(比如莫斯科对叙利亚政府的支持)的紧张关系预计仍然会持续下去。

'There's no reason to expect that even if Russia has the most developed political system and no one can find anything to criticize on freedom, there won't be frictions in the international arena,' he said.

他说,就算俄罗斯拥有最先进的政治制度,在人权自由问题上没有任何能让人挑出毛病的地方,我们也不能指望在国际交往上不会有摩擦。