华尔街日报 西班牙困境引发对救助计划的重新思考

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Spanish Woes Cast Rescue in New Light

西班牙困境引发对救助计划的重新思考

2012年06月20日10:50

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)

The dismal market reaction to the euro zone's promise to pump as much as EUR100 billion ($126.5 billion) into shaky Spanish banks--underlined by the high yield the government paid Tuesday to raise short-term funds--is prompting a rethinking of the rescue's mechanics, which have heightened worries over Madrid's ability to repay its debts.

欧元区承诺向摇摇欲坠的西班牙银行业注入至多1,000亿欧元(合1,265亿美元)的资金,但市场对此却反应冷淡(从西班牙政府周二所拍卖短期国债的高收益率可见一斑)。这样的市场反应开始促使人们重新思考救助计划的技术细节。这些细节加剧了外界对马德里偿债能力的担忧。

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy relaunched a campaign to allow the euro zone's rescue fund to directly channel the aid money into the country's lenders, rather than through the governments--a demand that has previously run aground.

西班牙首相拉霍伊(Mariano Rajoy)再次发起了一场旨在使欧元区救助基金获准直接向西班牙放贷机构注资的行动,目前该基金只获准通过政府来注资。西班牙此前在这方面的努力一直未能奏效。

At the summit of the Group of 20 leading economies in Los Cabos, Mexico, Mr. Rajoy told his counterparts it was necessary to 'break the link between risk in the banking sector and the sovereign risk,' a Spanish official said.

相关报道G20领导人在欧元区问题上存在分歧西班牙国债收益率触及欧元区成立以来新高希腊三个政党接近就组建联合政府达成协议希腊暂无退出欧元区之虞西班牙连遭降级 欧元区又有麻烦专题:欧元区危机据一位西班牙官员说,在墨西哥洛斯卡沃斯(Los Cabos)召开的20国集团峰会上,拉霍伊对其他与会领导人说,有必要打破银行业风险与主权风险之间的联系。

Officials in Brussels cautioned the momentum hasn't moved in favor of making such far-reaching changes to the Spanish bank-aid plan. But they said at least one issue is back on the table: putting bank-rescue loans on equal footing with government bonds held by private investors. Germany has insisted official loans should have a preferred status, meaning they shouldn't suffer losses even if private bondholders are forced into a restructuring.

欧盟官员提醒说,形势的发展一直不利于对西班牙银行业救助计划做出这样影响深远的调整。但他们说,至少有一个问题重新开始被讨论:给予银行救助贷款和私人投资者持有的国债相同的地位。德国一直坚持说,官方贷款应该享有优先地位,这意味着就算私人债券持有者被迫接受债务重组,官方贷款也不应遭受损失。

Some analysts have blamed this prospective subordination of private creditors as contributing to the retreat of Spanish bond markets since the bank-bailout plan was announced 10 days ago. Others argue investors should assume official lenders will have preferred status anyway.

一些分析人士指责说,正是由于私人债权人在受偿次序方面的位次未来将会下降,这才造成了自10天前西班牙银行业救助计划公布以来西班牙债市重新陷入低迷的局面。其他人则说,投资者无论如何都应该假定官方放贷机构将拥有优先受偿地位。

The precariousness of Spain's finances was underlined Tuesday, when the country had to pay sharply higher interest rates on EUR3.04 billion in short-term debt. The yield on Spanish 12-month bills jumped to 5.07%, from 2.99% May 14, while the yield on 18-month bills rose to 5.11% from 3.3%. Although the yield on Spanish 10-year bonds slipped to 6.98% on the secondary market, it is still almost a percentage point higher than before the aid request.

西班牙财政状况的不稳定性周二进一步凸显出来。当天,西班牙不得不为30.4亿欧元短期国债支付高得多的利率。西班牙一年期国债收益率从5月14日的2.99%飙升至5.07%,18个月期国债收益率则从3.3%飙升至5.11%。尽管二级市场上西班牙10年期国债收益率回落至6.98%,但仍较西班牙请求救助其银行业之前高出近一个百分点。

The rise in rates at Tuesday's sale of bills, analysts said, is an ominous sign ahead of a Thursday auction in which the government plans to sell as much as EUR2 billion of two-, three- and five-year debt. Despite the rising borrowing costs, officials said there is no official talk of Spain asking for a full-fledged government bailout.

分析人士说,周二西班牙发债利率的上升对周四的国债拍卖来说是个凶兆。周四,西班牙政府计划发行至多20亿欧元两年期三年期和五年期国债。尽管借贷成本不断上升,但官员们说,目前并没有正式谈及西班牙政府可能要求对其进行全面救助一事。

The Spanish bank bailout--and the wider market rout that has gripped the euro zone over the past week--will be discussed at a meeting of the bloc's finance ministers Thursday in Luxembourg. Mr. Rajoy is also meeting German Chancellor Angela Merkel as well as his Italian and French counterparts Friday, giving the leaders another opportunity to discuss the aid deal.

周四在卢森堡举行的欧元区财长会议将讨论西班牙银行业的救援问题,以及过去一个星期欧元区市场状况整体恶化的问题。周五拉霍伊还将会见德国总理默克尔(Angela Merkel)和意大利法国领导人,届时他们又将拥有一次商讨救援协议的机会。

Spain's market troubles stem from doubts the country will be able to repay its expanding debt pile, leaving a shrinking group of investors demanding ever-higher compensation for lending it money.

西班牙市场的动荡源自投资者对这个国家能否偿还其日益膨胀的债务的怀疑。这种怀疑导致投资者越来越少,而要求的回报率也越来越高。

The EUR100 billion now earmarked for Spain's banks is equivalent to almost 10% of its gross domestic product and would, if it is used in full, push its debt load to around 90% of GDP. While that is much lower than the debt burdens of Greece or Italy, Spain is also running high deficits, a crash of property prices doesn't seem to have reached bottom, unemployment is close to 25% and the country is stuck in a bitter recession.

目前划给西班牙银行业的1,000亿欧元几乎相当于西班牙国内生产总值(GDP)的10%,如果全额使用的话,该国的债务将达到GDP的90%左右。虽然这远远低于希腊或意大利的债务负担水平,但西班牙还拥有高额赤字,而且房价暴跌似乎还没有见底,失业率接近25%,其经济深陷衰退而不能自拔。

The European Stability Mechanism, the new euro-zone rescue fund that is expected to come into operation this summer and is the euro zone's favored vehicle for the bailout, has preferred-creditor status, meaning it would get repaid before any other entity that lent money to Spain if the country was to default on its debts.

欧元区新的救援基金欧洲稳定机制(European Stability Mechanism)预计将于今年夏季开始运作,这是欧元区最被看好的救援工具。这只基金拥有优先债权人地位,也就是说,如果西班牙发生债务违约,它将先于其他借款人获得还款。

Analysts said it is possible the issue could be addressed by a summit in late June of European Union leaders. 'In the best case, language which makes clear that Spain's banking program would not be senior could be introduced into the EU summit's conclusions on June 28-29,' said Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst with Eurasia Group in New York.

分析人士说,6月下旬欧盟领导人的一次峰会有可能讨论这个问题。欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)驻纽约分析师拉赫曼(Mujtaba Rahman)说,在最好的情况下,6月28日至29日欧盟峰会的结论可能会明确提到西班牙银行救援计划不会享有优先地位。

But putting the ESM on equal footing with regular bondholders would only resolve part of the problem--assuming investors would believe a statement to that effect by euro-zone leaders, said Guntram B. Wolff, deputy director of Brussels think-tank Bruegel.

但布鲁塞尔智库Bruegel副主任沃尔夫(Guntram B. Wolff)说,把欧洲稳定机制与普通债券持有人置于平等地位只会解决部分问题,前提是假定投资者相信欧元区领导人表达这一意思的声明。

The much-bigger issue remains the country's expanding debt load, he added, for which no institution has offered a credible solution so far. Spain's demand for direct capital injections for its banks rather than lending the money first to the government is being supported by the European Commission, the EU's executive, and some other EU governments, but is still being resisted vehemently by Germany, officials said. One EU official, however, said 'it is still early days' and the exact structure of the aid hadn't been decided yet.

他说,相对而言,西班牙债务不断扩大这个问题要严重得多,到目前为止还没有哪个机构提出一套可信的解决方案。据官员说,西班牙要求直接向其银行注资而不是先向政府贷款,得到了欧盟的执行机构欧盟委员会(European Commission)和部分欧盟国家政府的支持,但仍然遭到德国的强烈反对。不过有一位欧盟官员说,现在还在早期阶段,救援的具体结构还没有确定。

GABRIELE STEINHAUSER / JONATHAN HOUSE

GABRIELE STEINHAUSER / JONATHAN HOUSE